The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) predicts that the African National Congress (ANC) will win 38.7% of the proportional representation (PR) vote in the Free State in South Africa’s 2026 local government elections, followed by the Democratic Alliance (DA) on 27.5%.

The predictions, published on Thursday morning, are based on results from 18.4% of voting districts having been declared in the province. The CSIR runs a prediction model that is accurate in using just a handful of district results to model the overall election result.

The model projects that the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) will secure 7.4% of the provincial vote. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF)  will also secure 7.4%. Other parties are collectively projected to secure 8.6%.

The chart below compares the modelled projections to the 2011, 2016, and 2021 results in the province.

The CSIR model also predicts voter turnout of 50.1% in the Free State.

The CSIR cautions that its predictions are statistical estimates based on available data and underlying assumptions, rather than official election results. The final outcome could therefore differ from the projections.