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Forty four percent of South Africans believe President Ramaphosa is guilty of a crime against 12% who believe he is innocent, with the remaining 40% undecided but saying he has a case to answer and should testify publicly.

If he is found guilty by parliament or a court, 81.7% say he should be removed from office — 80% of black respondents, 82% of white, 85% of Indian and 94% of coloured respondents — and 72% say the DA would be right to bring a motion of no confidence. Asked whether South Africa would be better or worse off without him, 40% of all voters say better, 29% say no difference and 19.5% say worse; among black voters the split runs 43% better against 20% worse, better than two to one.

Frans Cronje explains why the revelations have landed this hard now: employment rose from 7 million to 15 million in the ANC's first three terms, then added only 2 million more in the 15 years since Mbeki left office, real per capita GDP has fallen, and housing and electricity indicators have gone backwards during Ramaphosa's term.

He argues that a growing economy would have absorbed a scandal like this almost entirely, that Ramaphosa's value to the ANC was always his distinction from Zuma and that distinction has now collapsed in the public mind, and that the party's succession options — with Patrice Motsepe the only candidate holding a net positive favourability — have narrowed accordingly.