This is far below the emerging-markets average of 25% and the global average of 28%. At 14% fixed investment, South Africa gets stuck with roughly 1% growth and 30% unemployment. To reach 4% growth and bring unemployment down toward 10%, the country must lift this rate towards 25-30% of GDP.

He explains why this number determines whether South Africa stays politically volatile with a stagnant economy or becomes a serious emerging market that creates real jobs.