The African National Congress (ANC) has suffered a dramatic electoral collapse in eThekwini over the past decade, losing its position as the municipality's dominant political force.

In the 2016 local government elections, the ANC secured 56% of the vote, giving it an outright majority in one of South Africa's most important metropolitan municipalities.

The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) now projects that the ANC will secure just 19% in 2026, a decline of 37 percentage points.

The principal change has been the emergence of the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP), which did not exist in 2016 and is now projected to secure 33% of the vote.

The MKP's emergence has fundamentally altered the political balance in a municipality that was once an ANC stronghold.

The Democratic Alliance (DA), meanwhile, has demonstrated remarkable electoral stability.

The party secured 27% in 2016 and is projected to secure exactly 27% again in 2026, despite the dramatic changes taking place around it.

The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) has also increased its support, from 4% in 2016 to a projected 8% in 2026.

The data is set out on the chart below.

The contrast with the other metropolitan municipalities is striking.

While the ANC's losses elsewhere have contributed to the growth of several competing political parties, eThekwini has seen the emergence of the MKP as a substantial new force.

The projections illustrate how dramatically the political landscape has changed, with the ANC moving from outright majority government in 2016 to a projected third place in 2026.