Cape Town remains the Democratic Alliance's (DA) strongest metropolitan municipality, although the party has lost considerable electoral support over the past decade.

The DA secured 67% of the vote in Cape Town in the 2016 local government elections, giving it a commanding outright majority.

The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) now projects that the party will secure 55% in 2026, representing a decline of 12 percentage points over the decade.

Despite this decline, the DA remains the only party likely to secure an outright majority in any of South Africa’s eight metros.

The African National Congress (ANC) has also suffered a substantial decline in Cape Town.

The party secured 24% in 2016 but is projected to secure just 14% in 2026, a fall of 10 percentage points.

This means that both major parties have lost support over the decade, although the ANC's decline has been proportionately greater.

The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) are projected to increase their support slightly, from 3% in 2016 to 4% in 2026. The Patriotic Alliance (PA) is also projected to secure 4%, while the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) is projected to secure 3%.

The figures, set out in the chart below, show that Cape Town has experienced the same broad fragmentation evident elsewhere in South Africa, but without the loss of single-party government.

For the DA, the projection would represent a fourth consecutive outright municipal election majority in Cape Town, although with a substantially reduced share of the vote compared with 2016.