The African National Congress (ANC) has suffered a dramatic decline in electoral support over the past decade, according to projections by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) for the 2026 local government elections.

The ANC secured 54% of the national vote in the 2016 local government elections. The CSIR now projects it will secure just 32%, representing a decline of 22 percentage points over the decade.

The Democratic Alliance (DA), meanwhile, has remained fairly stable. It secured 27% in 2016 and is projected to secure 26% in 2026, a decline of just one percentage point.

The principal change in the country has been the emergence of smaller parties, particularly those competing for the ANC's traditional support base.

The uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP), which did not exist in 2016, is projected to secure 9% nationally, while the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) are projected to fall from 8% in 2016 to 6%.

The chart below sets out the data from 2016 for the major parties.

The figures suggest that the ANC's electoral decline has not primarily benefited the DA, but has instead contributed to the fragmentation of South African politics.

This has important implications for coalition formation, as the ANC and DA may increasingly find that they are less direct competitors for votes than the ANC and the smaller parties that have emerged from its traditional political constituency.