The African National Congress (ANC) has suffered one of its largest metropolitan electoral declines in Ekurhuleni, according to projections by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR).

In the 2016 local government elections, the ANC secured 49% of the vote in Ekurhuleni, falling just short of an outright majority.

The CSIR now projects the party will secure just 22% in 2026, representing a decline of 27 percentage points over the decade.

That means the ANC's share of the vote has more than halved in one of Gauteng's most important industrial municipalities.

The Democratic Alliance (DA), meanwhile, has remained comparatively stable.

The party secured 34% in 2016 and is projected to secure 30% in 2026, a decline of four percentage points.

The most significant beneficiary of the changing political landscape has been ActionSA, which did not exist in 2016 and is now projected to secure 19% of the vote.

The MKP is projected to secure 7%, while the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) are projected to decline from 11% in 2016 to 6%.

The data is set out in the chart below.

The figures reveal a fundamental restructuring of Ekurhuleni's political landscape.

The ANC has moved from being the dominant electoral force to one of three substantial parties, alongside the DA and ActionSA.

The DA is projected to emerge with the largest share of the vote, but remains well short of a governing majority.

The projections therefore point towards another period of coalition politics in Ekurhuleni, with ActionSA potentially occupying an important position in negotiations over the municipality's future government.