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No party is likely to win a majority in Mbombela (which includes Nelspruit) in Mpumalanga in the local government elections (LGE) on 4 November.

This is according to an analysis conducted by The Common Sense.

It is part of an overall analysis of South Africa’s metros and non-metro cities across South Africa, to determine what may happen in the LGE, which is likely to see a record number of hung municipalities (where no party wins a majority).

Nelspruit

But what do the historical trends tell us about what may happen in Mbombela, the capital of Mpumalanga?

Like in most other places that have been analysed thus far, in 2014, the African National Congress (ANC) was historically the biggest party by far, but saw a sharp decline (although not as steep as what we have seen in places like KwaZulu-Natal or Cape Town).

In 2014, the ANC won over 80% of the vote in Mbombela, with the Democratic Alliance (DA) on 11.3% and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) winning just below 5%.

Only 2.4% of people voted for parties other than the Big Three national parties.

In 2019, the ANC saw a slight decline, to 75.6%, with the DA falling to 9.9%. Meanwhile, the EFF almost doubled its support to 9.0%, with the vote for smaller parties growing to 5.5%.

In 2024, the ANC saw a sharp decline, to 50.3%. This was likely primarily because of the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP), which won 17.2%. The DA saw its vote share rise to 14.0%, while the EFF also saw slight growth, to 12.5%.

Smaller parties received 6.0% of the vote.

In the 2016 LGE, the ANC had a comfortable majority, winning 76.2%, with the DA far behind, on 13.9%, and the EFF on 6.8%. Compared to the 2014 national election in Mbombela, both the DA and the EFF improved on their vote shares, while the ANC saw a five-point decline.

In 2021, the ANC saw another sharp decline, with its vote share falling by ten points, to 65.2%. The DA won 13.5%, similar to what it won in 2016, while the EFF overtook the DA to become the second-biggest party in the municipality, winning 14.7%.

Comparing the 2021 LGE results to the 2019 national results showed the ANC losing ten points, with the DA seeing an increase of nearly four points, and the EFF an increase of nearly five points.

In the two LGEs smaller parties won 3.7% in 2016 and 6.6% in 2021.

If the trends hold into 2026, the ANC could find itself winning in the low 40s, with the MKP and the DA likely to both be on around 15%, with the EFF on around 10%. A coalition is almost certain in Mbombela with the ANC being the single-biggest party – will the ANC stay in power with the help of other parties, or can the DA, EFF, and MKP put aside their differences and govern together?